Trying to understand the politics of ASI, and the potential for AI to be nationalized

Let's say we get there in the next 10-30 years, approximately. Here is a rough outline of what I think happens politically when it comes to ASI.<br><br>Internal Power Struggle<br><br>The United States is the nation with the most AI talent and the most working on ASI. We are the front-runner in terms of technology. There will be a power struggle with regards to who controls ASI. Governments could take over companies that are making too much progress on AGI, or they could partner with those companies. Any sort of cooperation is going to be really difficult given how much pressure and hype there is around AGI. I imagine that would be a long and contentious process, and there would be a lot of roadblocks in the way. The best case scenario is that we have competing nation-states that are also developing AGI, or even better competing corporations that are all working on different aspects of AGI. <br><br>There are two different potential futures that could develop if we have competing nation-states<br><br>1. Arms race<br><br>The best-case scenario is that we have a global arms race for AGI, in which the US finds itself in a "race" to be the first one to develop AGI. By this logic, they would feel pressured to push faster, but that would be slower than in the case of nationalization. The risk is that there is a power imbalance in which the US and China are the only two players left in the game, so that we are reliant on China to create a new ASI to compete with the US. If that doesn't happen, the US could feel pressure to go for nationalization.<br><br>2. Nationalization<br><br>1 and 2 might lead to 3. The worst-case scenario is that the US feels pressured to declare all research on AGI illegal, and begins to seize assets from companies. In the worst-case scenario, the US and China both decide to do this and it's a military arms race to see who can get to AGI first. In the best-case scenario, only the US does it, and China is allowed to continue its own research in the open. If China succeeds with AGI before the US, then it could potentially open up research again in the US. This would be a return to a global arms race.