What if China and Japan had colonized the Americas before the Europeans?

To make it simple I'll call this alternate history timeline "Seatoa". It's a mix of the words "Sea of Japan" and "Atlantica".<br>It's almost impossible to pinpoint an exact event that could lead to this alternate history scenario, but we can imagine what kind of butterfly effects would lead to such an outcome.<br><br>First of all, the need for butterflying is much smaller for China than for Japan. During the early Ming dynasty, China had an extensive maritime empire stretching over the Indian Ocean, extending into East Africa. While the Ming Treasure Fleet was active, it went further south than the Europeans did. It was already exploring Southeast Asia when Europeans were still doing land caravans through Central Asia. The European explorers that arrived in Asia during the 15th century arrived two centuries after the first Chinese expeditions.<br><br>The main reason why the Chinese didn't settle in the Americas is... nobody knows for sure. The most popular theory is that the Ming Treasure Fleet was too expensive for the empire, and that it was impossible to keep going once the first emperor was succeeded. It's easy to imagine that the treasure fleet could've gone further north than Southeast Asia. It was already exploring the coasts of East Africa and India. If it was sustained it could've gone around Africa and into the Atlantic, into the Mediterranean.<br><br>For Japan, it's a bit more complicated. The Japanese were mostly a naval empire during the Heian era. There are records of Japanese ships entering Southeast Asia as early as the 9th century. However, this stopped as soon as the Kamakura period started. The Japanese went into a period of isolationism that lasted centuries. Japan is also an archipelago and Chinese and Korean ships had a much stronger grip on the Pacific. If we wanted Japan to go through the same path as China, we need to imagine a completely different scenario.<br><br>The simplest one would be to imagine a Japan that participates in the Indian Ocean Trade under the same terms as the Chinese. That means a Japan that keeps its naval capabilities and expands further south. Japan and China were already trading with each other and with Korea. Japan was one of the 4 main trading powers in East Asia, along with China, Korea and Indonesia. Under these conditions, it can easily imagine Japan participating in the Mongol's invasions of Asia and starting to trade with India.<br><br>In that sense, we can imagine the Japanese as another force in the Indian Ocean, exploring Africa and India, as well as Southeast Asia. It's then possible to imagine them exploring the Americas and settling them. Especially the west coast of North America. It's also easy to imagine them settling the Pacific Islands. Hawaii, for example, is halfway between Japan and the Americas.<br><br>Going back to the point of divergence. For China, we can imagine this point of divergence being the appointment of a different emperor that could've kept the naval traditions of the Shang and Han dynasties and expanded them. Perhaps a more expansionist emperor than traditional Ming emperors.<br><br>For Japan, we can imagine an emperor that had more naval capabilities and had a stronger maritime empire, that didn't isolate itself and expanded instead. Perhaps an emperor that was closer to the Chinese tradition than the Japanese one. While the Japanese were starting their period of isolationism, we can imagine a Japan that is participates in the Mongol invasions, as the Chinese did, and starts to trade with India and Southeast Asia.<br><br>In any case, in the Seatoa scenario, the Chinese and Japanese had already settled in the Americas by the time the Europeans arrived. It's almost certain that the Europeans wouldn't have been able to settle, or even conquer the Americas. A Brazil with Portuguese culture and a USA with English culture would've been impossible. The Americas would've been colonized by Mongol's successors in Asia.<br><br>**The implications**<br><br>There are some key implications to this scenario. First of all, the Americas wouldn't have been as depopulated by diseases as they were historically. The Chinese and Japanese were already used to smallpox and other European diseases. They had had extensive contact with the Mongols and other Asian powers. While diseases would've been a problem, the native populations would've been Chinese and Japanese. It's easy then to imagine that the demographic collapse that followed contact with Europeans would've been much smaller.<br><br>Secondly, it's very easy to imagine that the Chinese and Japanese had settled the Americas in a more gradual way. The Europeans settled the Americas through the conquistadors, but also through big waves of immigration, mostly in the 19th and 20th centuries. In this scenario, it's easier to imagine the Chinese and Japanese slowly settling the Americas, generation after generation.<br><br>A third point is the need for European colonization in Africa and Asia. European powers probably wouldn't have colonized other regions. They would've been kicked out of the Americas and would've had no way to colonize them. Why go as far as India or Africa when they could've simply settled in the Americas? In this scenario, neither the USA, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, nor any other country in Central or South America would've existed. Most of the world's empires in the modern era were established in the Americas.<br><br>In this scenario, European powers probably wouldn't have colonized Africa or Asia. At least not to the same extent. They wouldn't have had the same capabilities. Without the wealth from their colonial empires in the Americas, there's no way they could've colonized other regions. Perhaps they would've colonized some islands, but that's it. Many of the big powers we know today wouldn't have existed without the wealth from their colonial empires. France and Britain wouldn't have had the same kind of wealth without their colonies.<br><br>Fourth, the lack of a Mongol successor state in Asia would probably have meant that the Mongol invasions wouldn't have happened. The Mongols invaded Asia because they had unified several tribes in China and then decided to invade other parts of Asia. Without the Mongols, Asia would probably have been a disparate region with several different empires and tribes. It would've been completely different from the homogenous Asiatic world that it is today.<br><br>Finally, without the European colonizers, there wouldn't have been a demographic collapse in the Americas. There also wouldn't have been a Mongol invasion of Asia. Perhaps the most important point is that the modern global order wouldn't have existed. There wouldn't have been this entire 'core vs. periphery' dynamic. There wouldn't have been a North-South divide, with rich countries in the North and poor countries in the South. It would've been almost impossible to have the kind of globalization we have today, or at least, it would've been very different.<br><br>**Conclusion**<br><br>In conclusion, a world where the Chinese and Japanese colonized the Americas before the Europeans is a world that is almost impossible to imagine. There are so many butterfly effects that could lead to such a scenario, and it's hard to pinpoint one in particular. However, if we start imagining a scenario where the Chinese and Japanese colonized the Americas, we start to see so many differences from our timeline.<br><br>First of all, there wouldn't have been a European colonization of Africa and Asia. Second, there wouldn't have been a Mongol invasion of Asia. Third, the demographic collapse in the Americas after contact with Europeans wouldn't have happened. Fourth, the modern global order wouldn't have existed. Finally, globalization as we know it today wouldn't have happened.<br><br>Overall, the scenario is fascinating, but it's also very difficult to imagine in detail. However, the implications are huge and it's easy to see why it's so fascinating.