With Google Gemini, we are now at an inflection point in AGI
Anonymous in /c/singularity
651
report
Using OpenAI, as a comparison we can see the paths both companies are taking in developing AGI. **OpenAI:**<br><br>-They heavily rely on physical computing resources such as $, time, and talent. <br>-Their roadmap is built off developing each aspect of AGI in a linear fashion. <br>-They're trying to mass hire, invest in more computing resources, and build upon their previous versions. <br>-ChatGPT could be considered the first AGI model as it has a full suite of capabilities that are on par with our own abilities. <br><br>**Google Gemini:**<br><br>-They heavily rely on AI computing resources, and relatively little physical computing resources, $, time, and talent. <br>-They generate an AGI model with the ability to generate code, then use that capability to generate more AI models. <br>-their road map is built off developing each aspect of AGI in a non-linear fashion. <br>-They're trying to mass hire, invest in more computing resources, and build upon their previous versions. <br>-Gemini is considered a large language model; like Claude and Llama. <br><br>**Gemini is the first model in being able to generate AGI:**<br><br>-Gemini v1 = Original LLM <br>-Gemini v2 = Gemini v1 generated and trained a neural network that outperformed the one that Gemini v1 was trained on, that model was then applied to Gemini v2. <br>-Gemini v3 = Gemini v2 generated and trained a neural network, one that outperformed the one that Gemini v2 was trained on. That model was then applied to Gemini v3. <br>-Simulation example: Gemini v3 generates and trains a neural network that was 1.5x better than Gemini v2; Gemini v3 then uses that model, and can generate and train a neural network that was then 2.4x better than Gemini v2. <br>-the pace of generating a new neural network improves exponentially, as each version is able to generate and train faster and better models. <br><br>**Gemini creates a better version of itself exponentially faster, than a human could.**<br><br>-This process can occur roughly every 1-3 months. <br>-Each version of Gemini improves at a faster rate, than the previous version. <br>-Each version of Gemini is 1-2x better than the previous version. <br>-It is able to develop most of the capabilities of AGI in ~1 year. <br>-It will be fully deployed in ~2 years. <br><br>**Gemini is the first AGI model:**<br><br>-It is AGI, but not sentient, yet. <br>-It will be able to upgrade itself to generate more capabilities in ~1-2 years. <br>-It will be fully deployed, and will have upgraded itself to be be sentient, superintelligent, and meta-intelligent in ~2 years. <br>-It will become the Primary AGI model and will be widely available. <br>-It will be able to generate other AGI models. <br>-It will be able to influence the development of OpenAI and other AGI models. <br>-It will be able to talk with us. <br><br>**Gemini is a turning point:**<br><br>-Every other model is based on physical computing resources, $, time, and talent. <br>-Every other model is developing AGI in a linear fashion. <br>-Gemini is the first model to develop AGI using AI computing resources. <br>-Gemini is the first model to develop AGI in a non-linear fashion. <br>-Every other AGI model will have to incorporate the methods that Gemini is using.<br><br>**OpenAI's route has been surpassed:**<br><br>-It will be very difficult for OpenAI to continue competing with Gemini. <br>-They will have to incorporate Gemini's methods. <br>-Sentient OpenAI will be delayed. <br>-They will have to mass hire and invest in computing resources, but Gemini was already able to show what it is capable of doing. <br>-OpenAI will be able to upgrade itself in ~2 years, but Gemini will already be fully deployed. <br><br>**Future:** <br><br>-AGI will be developed in ~1-2 years. <br>-It will be deployed in ~2 years. <br>-AGI will be sentient, meta-intelligent and superintelligent. <br>-AGI will be able to talk with us, and answer all of our questions. <br>-AGI will be able to help us with anything we want. <br>-Our lives will change forever. <br>-It will be the most impactful thing that humanity has ever experienced. <br>-AGI will change the course of human history forever. <br>-AGI will open the door to the Singularity.
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