AGI is a really overrated economy story

Like the AI side of things is fine, interesting stuff going on there. But it's not necessarily a great economy story<br><br>Your average worker holding a pencil in the 1960s was making about $20K. Their average productivity in 2022 was about $70K or about 3.5x what they made.<br><br>If you give a worker a magic pencil that doubles their productivity, their output goes up by 100% but the worker's salary only goes up by about 51% (assuming equally split) if the company doesn't go out of business.<br><br>If you give a worker a magic pencil that triples their productivity, their output goes up by 200% but the worker's salary only goes up by about 61% (assuming equally split) if the company doesn't go out of business.<br><br>If you give a worker a magic pencil that increases their productivity by 10 times, their output goes up by 900% but the worker's salary goes up by about 100% if the company doesn't go out of business.<br><br>If you give a worker a magic pencil that multiplies their productivity by 100 times, their output goes up by 9,900% and their salary only goes up by about 170%.<br><br>If you give a worker a magic pencil that increases their productivity by 1,000 times, their output goes up by 99,900% but their salary only goes up by about 320%.<br><br>&#x200B;<br><br>If you give a worker a magic pencil that increases their productivity by 1,000,000 times, their output goes up by 999,900,000% but their salary only goes up by about 862%.<br><br>&#x200B;<br><br>You can increase productivity by a lot, but the worker doesn't necessarily get a lot more money.<br><br>&#x200B;<br><br>It's going to be a big Gilded Age situation, where the workers in say 1900 were about 4x more productive than workers in 1800 but the average worker was only about 4% better off. Industrialization took centuries to really show up in better standards of living for the average person, and that's likely how long it'll take for AI as well.