Mitch McConnell Pulls Out a Trump Card

Mitch McConnell Pulls Out a Trump Card Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell has told party donors that he has lost hope on saving his seat and is encouraging them to give all their money to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) to save Senate seats in other battleground states. A recent **Lexington Herald-Leader** poll commissioned by the **Mitch McConnell Project** shows that the Kentucky Senator trails Democrat Amy McGrath by 3 percentage points. The poll also reveals that Mitch McConnell's favorable rating is a negative 15%. Mitch's Fall From Grace Mitch McConnell has always been considered "the most hated man in Washington". But for 35 years he was always able to survive elections against a Democratic challenger in deep-red Kentucky. For the most part his strategy has been to run with Donald Trump at his side like they were Siamese twins. But the strategy has clearly backfired now that Trump is out of the White House and now widely regarded as a historic loser. Over the last two years the reputation of the McConnell-Trump duo has been in free-fall. Trump lost the 2020 Presidential Election and then lost two runoff Senate seats in Georgia. In his final grasp at power Trump incited the January 6th riot at the Capitol and lost the Senate for the second time in two months. The anger and animosity from Trump's mishaps have attached themselves to McConnell like a bad rash. Mitch's approval is at an all-time low and Trump's numbers show that 60% of Americans want him to go away. Amy McGrath is the Right Opponent at the Right Time Amy McGrath is a former fighter pilot who has been the media darling since her 2017 campaign against Republican U.S. Representative Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th District. Amy lost the House race in 2018 but two years later she came back to take a close U.S. Senate primary against McConnell's favorite - Matt Jones, a sports radio talk show host. Amy McGrath is a moderate Democrat who has built a strong coalition of Democrats, Republicans and Independents who are fed up with Mitch McConnell's leadership. A recent **Lexington Herald-Leader** poll shows that her favorables are at +18% and she leads McConnell by 3 percentage points. McGrath has outraised McConnell by $2 million and with **ActBlue** money pouring in from all over the country she will have the resources to campaign through election day. Mitch McConnell Still Has a Few Tricks Up His Sleeve McConnell is a powerful and seasoned campaigner who knows that Amy McGrath can still slip up and beat herself in the months leading up to the November election. To keep the heat on Amy McGrath, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has released an advertisement that raises the question on whether she is "a real" Kentuckian. The NRSC ad raises the issue that Amy McGrath has lived in the Washington D.C. suburbs while working for U.S. Representative Susan Davis of California as well as serving as a staffer for Representatives Ray Mabus of Mississippi and Bob Filner of San Diego. The ad asks Amy McGrath to explain why she was registered to vote in Anne Arundel County, Maryland. The ad also raises the issue that Amy recently claimed to being a fan of the Cincinnati Reds but in 2019 told an audience in Louisville that it was the St. Louis Cardinals. Amy has explained that she has lived in different parts of the country as a result of her military career and always voted as an absentee voter. The NRSC ad concludes that Amy McGrath may not be "a real Kentuckian" and does not share the values of the people she hopes to represent in the U.S. Senate. It ends with the assertion that Amy McGrath does not know where she is from. The Donald Trump Card? If the NRSC ad does not work, Mitch McConnell has one remaining card up his sleeve. He can always drag Donald Trump back into the campaign. Trump is a formidable opponent who is still loved by a strong majority of Republican voters in Kentucky. In 2016 Trump won Kentucky by 30 percentage points. In 2020 his margin was 26 percentage points. Amy McGrath will lose if she is forced to run with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. The Trump Card is a double-edged sword. Trump's favorables are under 40% and a strong majority of Americans have stated in polls that they want him to go away. A Trump endorsement would likely raise Amy's numbers by 5-10 percentage points. McGrath will likely raise $10 million in **ActBlue** money if Trump jumps into the race. With that money she will likely increase her lead by 8-12 percentage points. Will the Trump Card Work? Mitch McConnell has the choice of either going down with the Trump ship or sailing into the sunset with Amy McGrath as his replacement. There is no evidence that McConnell will throw Trump overboard and run away from him. The strong likelihood is that McConnell will try to use Trump. He has already used his Trump card twice over the last six months. In April McConnell welcomed Donald Trump into Kentucky for a rally in Pikeville. In August McConnell and Trump had a reunion in Washington D.C. A full-blown Trump endorsement will likely backfire as Amy McGrath will be able to tie McConnell to all the negative things that have happened under Trump's leadership. It will be a losing strategy but it is the only hand that McConnell has to play. A Trump endorsement poses a larger threat to the Republican Party as a whole. It likely means that the seat is lost and will raise Amy's national profile. It will also put Republican Senate seats in North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and South Carolina in greater jeopardy. The likely result of a Trump endorsement in Kentucky could be a Republican rout on election day that could lead to the largest margin of defeat since the Watergate election of 1974 when Democrats won 48 seats and took control of Congress.

Mitch McConnell Pulls Out a Trump Card

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