The US economy is unlikely to hold up through to the 2024 election

This sub frequently posts messages about how the US economy is doing well, despite everything. I see regular posts about how the SF Fed is massively bearish about the US economy. I personally work in a field with chronic labor shortages, and it is becoming extremely obvious that the US labor market is massively overheated. 4.5% is really low for the US unemployment rate, and the fact we have sustained it for over a year with little to no inflation is completely unprecedented.<br><br>Despite this, it seems like the US economy will be in pretty bad shape by 2024.<br><br>1. Housing prices are unaffordable, and it’s getting worse. We all know this will lead to a recession.<br><br>2. Labor shortages are growing worse. We all know this will lead to a recession.<br><br>3. The debt ceiling means we are going to have to have a recession.<br><br>4. The labor shortages are causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which will (you guessed it) cause a recession.<br><br>5. The baby boomer generation is causing labor shortages, which we all know is going to cause a recession.<br><br>6. The US can’t borrow more money. We all know what happens after that.<br><br>So all of these things have to happen simultaneously in order for the US economy to enter a recession. It doesn’t really matter what causes it. The point is that the US economy will almost certainly be in recession by 2024.