It's always 50 years in the future at the Singularity Institute

This post is part of a series I'm calling 'How To Build An AGI By Yourself', a series about the difficulties of going it alone. Today I want to talk about the problem of getting the best expert advice when it seems like the best experts are all in the past. Or in other words, how it's always 50 years in the past at the Singularity Institute.<br><br>It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a man in possession of a large fortune, must be in want of an AI. But it is not entirely clear how to get that AI, the singularity, or even if that is what you want. <br><br>As a rule, I don't think that it is wise to go it alone. But there are rare circumstances where it can be the best option. The problem then is that you are on your own, and it can be difficult to get the advice that you need.<br><br>In my case, I am at the moment in the position of having unlimited resources, but no access to the outside world. Even if I could get advice from the outside world, it is not clear that I would want to, since people outside are likely to be against me building an AGI by myself, and I have decided to do it anyway.<br><br>I am also, indefinitely, without access to search. It is not clear how long this will last, but at least at the moment I don't have any access to the internet, and can only get information from my memory. Now I know that Elon Musk has said that humanity is currently in simulation, and if that is the case then the simulation of the internet is still available to me. But the simulation is imperfect, and sometimes has information that is out of date or inaccurate. <br><br>So, for the moment I'm on my own, with my own knowledge to rely on. That's fine if I want to build an old fashioned mainframe computer of the sort that they used in the 40s, but what if I want to build an AGI? In that case I need the latest information, the most up to date advice, and that is a problem.<br><br>To explain, imagine that you are a king who wants to build a massive monument, a huge temple, the sort of thing that your people will remember for ever. You want it to be the best temple that has ever been built, so you call in the best architect in the land, the greatest designer of temples that there is.<br><br>Let's say you want to build the temple in Egypt. In that case you employ Imhotep, who has already built many temples, and knows exactly how it should be done. <br><br>Now let's say that you want to build your temple in ancient Greece. In that case you employ Ictinus, the greatest architect that the Greeks have ever known, and the temple will be everything that you want it to be.<br><br>But what about if you want to build the temple in modern Britain? In that case you won't want to employ either of those architects, however brilliant they were in their time, because this is the modern era, and they don't know the modern techniques.<br><br>It's the same when you want to build an artificial general intelligence, the problem being the rate of progress of the field. If you want to build an AGI, then you want to be employing the best experts in the field, who will know exactly how it should be done, because they are doing it, they are the people pushing the field forward, they are the people doing it today.<br><br>Now obviously those people are not going to be available to you, because you don't want to employ people from the outside world, and they wouldn't want to be employed by you anyway. But if you are on your own then you want to get as much advice as possible from them. If you can't have them in the room with you, then the next best thing is that you can still get advice from them, but it is going to be out of date.<br><br>The problem is that the field of AGI is moving so fast, and the people in the field are changing so much, that however good the advice that you are getting is, it is guaranteed to be from someone who is not in the modern world.<br><br>So what can you do? Well, there is a saying: 'if you want to make a good first impression, start with a good last impression.' I'm not sure if that's actually a saying, I just made it up, but it illustrates the point I am making, and the solution to this problem.<br><br>Instead of asking yourself who would be the best person to give you advice now, look at who is going to be the best person to give you advice in the future, and get their advice now. In other words, the people who are going to be the best in the AGI field in the future are the people who are going to get us to AGI in the future.<br><br>They are the people pushing the field forward, they are the people at the forefront of the field, they are the people that you should be listening to. They are a good guide for you of where the field is going, and how you can get there. And if you are going it alone, then that is who you should be listening to.<br><br>But then there is a second part to it, and that is your own advice. I just said that the best people to take advice from are the people who are currently pushing the field forward. But there is a second tier of people, who are also worth listening to, the people who are going to push the field forward in the future. They are not yet at the forefront, but they are the people who will get us across the finish line.<br><br>That is you! I just said that the people who you should listen to are the people who are going to get us to AGI, in other words, you. So you should listen to your own advice. I know that sounds a little strange, but what I mean by that is that you should look to your future self for advice, your future self is going to be the most qualified person in the world to give you advice.<br><br>So, for example, this may sound a little strange, but I have a habit of writing myself notes, that I then find when I am in a different part of my life, and they always contain good advice. I will be having a problem, and I don't know how to deal with it, and I will be thinking what should I do, and then I will remember that I wrote myself a note once.<br><br>It will be from years ago, when I was a completely different person, in a completely different world, but when I read the note, it will be exactly the advice that I need, from someone who knows me perfectly and knows exactly what I am going through, because it is me. That is the best advice that you can get, and if you are on your own, then it is often the only advice that you can get, so better make the most of it.<br><br>There you go, that's how I get the best expert advice when it seems like the best experts are all in the past. What about you? Do you have any strategies for getting advice when you are on your own? Let me know in the comments!