CMV: It would be better for labour if the next election is a Conservative defeat rather than a Labour victory.

It's no secret that the next UK election is going to be a Tory defeat. I think it would actually be good for labour if they didn't have to take office so soon. <br><br>1) The next government is likely to finish the Brexit transition period and either have a deal with the EU or no deal. If that's the Tories, they'll own the consequences. If its labour, they'll own the consequences labour will probably be blamed for any problems with the deal/no deal. <br><br>2) The next government is going to have to deal with the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. It will probably be a massive recession. If its labour, they'll own the economic and social consequences. If it's the Tories, labour can simply act as opposition. <br><br>3) If Boris gets a deal, but it's a bad deal, this will probably lead to calls for Scottish independence. The SNP will probably make massive gains in the next election and potentially drag the Labour party kicking and screaming into another independence referendum (which will probably result in independence). In this scenario, labour will be blamed for Scotland leaving the UK (never mind that it was the Tories that caused Brexit). If on the other hand the Tories botch the deal, Scottish independence is much more likely to happen on their watch.<br><br>4) With a massive recession and the economic and social consequences of brexit, it will be very very hard for any government to act as anything other than an austerity government. Again, if this is the Tories, labour can be the opposition and blame the government for the problems that will inevitably arise from austerity. If its labour, they'll own the political cost of pretending they can avoid austerity. <br><br>5) Labour will probably take a kicking in the next election, but they won't be annihilated. By not winning, they'll have a chance to regroup and try to build a winning coalition to get elected in the following election. The tories will have to deal with the aftermath of Brexit and COVID. <br><br>6) Lastly, if Labour win the next election on a manifesto based on a second referendum and remain, the Tories will probably win the following election on a "we told you so" platform. <br><br>If you don't think this is the case, please change my view.