People really don't understand how big of a difference doubling computing power will make.

The headline news is that OpenAI released gpt4 and it's the smartest ai ever. But what I think got glossed over is that they did this at a fraction of the cost of gpt3, with a fraction of the computing power. When they announced gpt3, people thought that was pretty much the end of the road. An expensive $12 million computer that was the peak of computing power. Today, that same cost got us a smarter ai at a fraction of the price. Computing power is growing extremely quickly. An ai model of gpt3's intelligence that was released a year ago will cost 3 cents in 2025. A development model of gpt4's intelligence will cost $3 in 2025. Anyone will be able to train an llaama 70 billion in their garage. We're so extremely close to agi at this point. I don't think we're more than 10 years away from that now.