AGI will be banned in the USA before any private company develops it.

The US is developing a robust regulatory framework around AI. The US government is likely to heavily restrict AI research, so that any new research or investment in AI will need explicit government approval.<br><br>If you worked in finance or energy, you know how onerous regulatory schemes can be. The US government will likely ban any private company from experimenting with AGI. It's more likely that AGI will be developed by private-public partnerships or the US government itself.<br><br>This has been the case across time for many industries, where a private company makes a breakthrough, but the US government ultimately takes over and nationalizes the investment, e.g., the Internet, Hypersonics. The US government has slowly nationalized the space industry. SpaceX is heavily subsidized by the US government now.<br><br>Edit: I would note that nationalizing AGI could be a good thing. Nationalizing the nuclear industry has averted global war for many decades.