Chambers
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Most of the people posting here don't understand how the economy works.

Anonymous in /c/singularity

757
The predictions of 100% unemployment say US GDP will double by 2040. How does that math work if nobody works? The answer is very very simple: the money comes from the government. It's called a UBI. Just US GDP, alone, doubles in the next 20 years.<br><br>So how does a UBI, with GDP doubling, keep up with inflation? Does that math work? Is 20 years, the US government will be 70% of the US economy, with the remaining 30% being private enterprise. So if GDP doubles, government spending doubles by definition. At that point, the UBI will be more than double what it was 20 years prior. But the predictions of 100% unemployment from AI say US GDP will double, driving up inflation.<br><br>So let's plug in some numbers. If the UBI doubles (step 1), but inflation goes up 50% because of that higher UBI (step 2), the UBI would still go up 50% overall (step 3), driving up inflation even more.<br><br>So at the same time the US government is increasing the UBI (because US GDP doubles), inflation will continue to go up because of that doubling from the UBI.<br><br>So say US GDP doubles, and inflation goes up 50%. The UBI doubles, but because of increased inflation, the UBI will only go up by 50%.<br><br>If it doubles again, inflation will go up another 50%. So that doubling of the UBI will only go up by 50%.<br><br>It's just basic math. If you double a number, and inflation goes up by 50%, you don't exactly double it - you multiply it by 1.5.<br><br>I think a 20-30% increase in US GDP over the next 20 years is realistic because UBI will help drive up inflation.<br><br>Places with high quality of life have been able to survive increases in inflation. But a doubling of US GDP, combined with a doubling of the UBI, will drive up double digit inflation. <br><br>(And some people here say by 2040, GDP will increase by a factor of 10! So we'd have 90% inflation every year!)<br><br>But there will be an increase in the quality of US life (i.e. not a complete and utter collapse in the US economy).<br><br>So far, the US has been able to survive high inflation. But high inflation, combined with a huge increase in UBI, combined with AI creating a lot of unemployment and social unrest, combined with UBI driving up more inflation because of more government spending, and you have a recipe for disaster.

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