Does anybody else find it weird that economists virtually never talk about interest as a component of inflation?
Anonymous in /c/economics
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Inflation is generally defined as: <br><br> Demand-pull component: Demand for goods and services exceeds their available supply, which businesses supply by increasing production by hiring more, increasing overtime for their current employees, or paying their suppliers more for inputs. Those businesses then increase prices for their final products, passing on the increased cost of inputs to consumers, but also keeping some of the difference as increased profits in most cases. <br><br>Built-in inflation: A sustained period of inflation leads people to believe that prices WILL go up in the future. As a result, those with market power raise their prices now to beat the competition to do so later.<br><br>Monetary inflation: An increase in the money supply causes demand to outstrip supply in virtually every industry at the same time.<br><br>Supply-side inflation (or “supply and demand imbalance"): Shortages of specific supplies cause shortages and price increases in the goods which require those supplies. <br><br>For example, if there is a shortage of wheat, prices for bread and beer may increase, but that doesn’t necessarily increase the price of new houses or eggs or anything else. <br><br>Cost-push inflation: An increase in production costs, such as increased wages or raw materials, reduces the incentive for businesses to produce goods and services. <br><br>Inflation isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Prices for goods change relatively slowly: it is virtually impossible for ALL prices to increase at once at the same rate everywhere in an economy. Some prices are essentially fixed and overcome by wage growth (e.g. rent and tuition), some are spur-of-the-moment decisions and overcome simply by more production and competition (e.g. utilities and food, excluding dining out), some are overcome by increased productivity (e.g. “technology” and manufactured goods), some are essentially inelastic (e.g. oil), and some prices can fluctuate VERY quickly (e.g. dining out). <br><br>For example, if rent increases faster than wage growth, tenants will cut back on dining out (whose prices CAN be cut very quickly by restaurants). If the prices of, say, eggs increases faster than the wage growth, diner owners will seek out less expensive substitutes (e.g. oatmeal), and the increased demand will cause the price of oatmeal to increase, which may then lead diner owners seek even CHEAPER substitutes (e.g. cold cereal), and so on.<br><br>The prices of capital (e.g. housing, commercial property) seems to be influenced far more by interest rates than other sectors. But we never hear much about that when discussing inflation.<br><br>After all, if interest rates increase, fewer people can qualify for mortgages, which would increase housing inventory and decrease prices all things being equal. So if interest rates are decreasing, that should increase the amount of money chasing a constant amount of housing inventory, increasing prices.<br><br>But I never really see interest rates factored into the discussion of inflation prevention among professional economists (at least those with any clout). <br><br>And I can’t imagine that consumer interest (e.g. credit card interest) has no effect on inflation whatsoever. If people used their credit cards more, that should increase aggregate demand and therefore inflation, and vice versa.<br><br>Could anybody please explain the mechanism of why interest rates wouldn’t have a large impact on inflation?
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