Post reduced from Confidence Interval

#Share<br><br>#First post<br>Hello everybody,<br><br>I am Italian, a PhD student and a macroeconomist, and from time to time, I write some pieces on economic policy. I also have a substack, where I post them. Why is my blog called "Post Confidence Interval" and not "Post Confidence Interval on Macroeconomics" or something like that?<br><br>Well, I must admit, it is because I am not so good at marketing. Before opening this blog, I already had a certain number of posts already written. However, it is not the reason why I called it this way. When you run an estimation of an effect with some data and you plot the coefficient, you usually accompany it with a confidence interval. A confidence interval is an interval around an estimate that, with a certain probability, is supposed to contain the "true" effect.<br><br>Well, as a macroeconomist, I am supposed to know what "true" effects are, but I do not. Confidence intervals are very useful because they tell us that, with some probability, the effect will be comprised in that interval. This is actually the idea I had in mind while thinking of the name of my blog. It is called "Post confidence interval" because I think of it as a blog where I try to estimate some true effects, but the estimates are so bad that I do not even put any confidence interval. So, welcome to "Post confidence interval" and enjoy reading. I hope this will be useful. <br><br>This was the presentation of the blog. As a macroeconomist, I am usually also into micro. If you would like to collaborate, please contact me at the following mail. Or simply, drop me a mail, if you appreciate this blog and you want to make me happy. <br><br>\[dario\.patricelli\@polimi\.it\](@mailto:[email protected])<br><br>Thank you so much. <br><br>Dario<br><br>#Contact<br><br>Please contact the adminmod team and include a link to your post if you believe this was an error.