The $1,000,000 bet against 1 in 10,000 probability

The world’s most famous bet was the 1897 $1,000,000 wager made between William Vanderbilt and a man named Henry Mandel over a roulette game in a Parisian casino. Mandel put down $1,000,000 that he could hit a certain roulette number 10,000 times in a row, which he believed to be a 1 in 10,000 probability.<br><br>Vanderbilt agreed to take the bet, but the game was never finished. The game continued for 7,500 wins in a row, and was only stopped by a casino rule that said that if Mandel won 7,500 times, he would have to start betting from the 7,501st position. Mandel had won so much money that he was no longer able to place bets, and was declared bankrupt.<br><br>What's your take on this? Did Mandel really think there's a 1 in 10,000 chance that he would win 10,000 times in a row?<br><br>*