CMV: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is, in part, a preventative war to stop a future war with Ukraine. It is not a war of aggression on Russia's part, but rather a war of self preservation.

\*\*Update \[14:30 UTC 28/02/2022\]\*\*:<br><br>I don't have time to answer all the comments, I have to pick up my family from the train station, but I can tell you that the Russian army has broken through Ukrainian defenses in some areas. Russian aircraft are flying over Ukraine and Russian troops have established a beach head in some areas near Mariupol (which is a Russian speaking city and a city of strategic importance). Russian forces have also broken through the defenses in the north of Ukraine and are closing on Kiev. The Russian Air Force is absolutely crushing the Ukrainian Air Force, with the Ukrainians already losing 7 jets and 5 helicopters.<br><br>The Ukrainian Armed Forces are putting up a fight, but it's just sad to see how outgunned they are. The Russian army is gradually establishing control over the Donbass region, Kharkiv province and Odessa province. Russia has already taken control over the entire Crimean peninsula and the Sea of Azov is under Russian control. The Russian Armed Forces are already in Sumy province, which is quite close to Kiev, which is why the Ukrainian government is considering surrendering. This war is slowly coming to an end.<br><br>The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been trying to plead with civilians to help them fight the Russian troops, but the Russian Armed Forces keep destroying Ukrainian command centers and Ukraine's communications networks. Ukraine's air defenses have also been destroyed, which is why Ukraine has been trying to recruit civilians to fight Russian aircraft using MANPADs. But the Russian Air Force has not yet begun its campaign to destroy Ukrainian cities, which is why Ukraine's cities are still safe for now.<br><br>The Russian army is now gradually closing in on Kiev. I'm not sure what will become of Ukraine after the war. It's possible Ukraine might become a Russian Federation subject, but it's possible that Russia will try peaceful coexistence and/or Ukraine will remain as a buffer zone/corridor. But for now, the war is ending.<br><br>\*\*Update \[13:11 UTC 03/03/2022\]\*\*: I'm back and little has changed. The Russian federation has considered recognizing Transnistria as an independent state. If Russia does that, expect Moldova to declare war on Russia, since Transnistria is a territory that Moldova claims as its own territory. The Russian army has now taken control of Kiev's suburbs. The Ukrainian government has already fled Kiev. Russian forces are now closing in on Kiev. The Ukrainian armed forces are in shambles. Ukraine has ordered a full mobilization of its armed forces, but morale is in shambles. It seems the war might soon end in a Russian victory. Russian forces are now closing in on Kiev and the war is ending.<br><br>If you want to still argue, feel free to argue. After all, this is still a discussion thread.<br><br>&#x200B;<br><br>\*\*Now to the original post \[written at 04:40 UTC on 28/02/2022\]\*\*\*\*<br><br>The Russian invasion of Ukraine is being framed as an aggressive invasion. However, in my opinion, it's just a preventative war to prevent a future war with a future NATO member Ukraine.<br><br>There's a lot of confusion when it comes to what a preventative war is. A preventative war is not a war to destroy an opponent, but rather a war to delay an inevitable future conflict. This is in contrast to a pre-emptive war, which is a war based on the assumption that the enemy will attack sooner or later. The key differences between preventative and pre-emptive wars is (a) preventative wars are fought to delay an inevitable future conflict. Pre-emptive wars are wars fought on the assumption an enemy attack is imminent. (b) pre-emptive wars are wars of self defense, whereas preventative wars are wars of self preservation. The differences between self defense and self preservation are not always clear cut, but in general terms, self preservation is acting in one's long-term best interest while self defense is acting in one's short-term best interest. (c) a preventative war is not necessarily aimed at destroying an enemy, while a pre-emptive war is always aimed at destroying an enemy before the enemy can launch a massive attack.<br><br>The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a preventative war. The war is being fought to delay an inevitable future conflict between Russia and Ukraine if Ukraine were to become a NATO member. The war is being fought to (a) curb Ukraine's desire to join NATO. (b) to secure a buffer zone along Russia's borders with Ukraine. (c) to delay an inevitable future war with Ukraine by weakening Ukraine to the point where Ukraine will not be able to threaten Russian security for the foreseeable future.<br><br>NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe and especially Ukraine (which is a country that directly borders Russia) will inevitably lead to war between Russia and Ukraine/NATO. Ukraine's joining of NATO will lead to a war between Russia and Ukraine/NATO because Ukraine has territorial disputes with Russia. In the 2014 Donbass Status Referendums, residents of Donbass (who are mostly Russian-speaking) voted overwhelmingly to become part of Russia. Russia did not accept their plea to become part of Russia, because the Russian government believed that the Russian-speaking people of Ukraine would be better off remaining as a buffer between Russia and Ukraine. However, the Russian government also realized that Russian speaking people still living in Ukraine would face persecution and would not be able to practice their culture and language freely if Ukraine joined NATO. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was thus aimed at securing the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians and securing their safety if Ukraine were to join NATO.<br><br>Ukraine considers Crimea to be part of Ukraine, but Crimea is under Russian control. Crimea's residents are mostly Russian-speaking. If Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia would have to fight a war against NATO to return Crimea to Russia. Russia would lose the war, and thus face collapse. The Russian government believes that if Ukraine joins NATO, Ukraine will inevitably launch a war to take Crimea and Donbass from Russia. Ukraine will inevitably receive the backing of NATO in such a war, which would effectively mean that Russia will be fighting a war against NATO. Russia cannot win a war against NATO, and thus the Russian government has launched a preventative war to delay an inevitable future conflict with NATO by (a) weakening Ukraine. (b) curb Ukraine's desire to join NATO. (c) secure a buffer zone along Russia's borders with Ukraine. (d) secure the rights of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine.<br><br>In conclusion, while the invasion might seem like a war of aggression to Western observers, it's really just a war to secure Russian interests. The invasion is a preventative war to delay an inevitable future conflict between Russia and Ukraine/NATO, and thus is a war of self preservation. This war is not necessarily aimed at destroying Ukraine, but rather delaying an inevitable future conflict by weakening Ukraine and securing a buffer zone along Russia's border with Ukraine.<br><br>&#x200B;