Who would win in an all-out war between the USA and China?

This is an excerpt of an interview between Lex Fridman (MIT) and Eric Schmidt (former CEO/Chairman of Google, former CEO of Novell). It was recorded in December 2023 and released only today.<br><br>I'll leave out the parts that don't pertain to the question of who would win a war between USA and China. I recommend listening to the whole thing for context.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** There's a premise, in my opinion, when a rising power meets a stable power or a declining power, conflict is so much more likely.<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** I think that's true. What is the rising power doing? What are they doing to challenge the status quo? The rising power doesn't want war. They want access, they want markets, they want security... and they want to be treated fairly. Do you think China wants war? I don't think so.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** They have demonstrated that they're not afraid of war.<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** I know exactly what you mean. But you have to look at their calculus. "Is it better for us to go to war? Or is it better for us to wait?" And I think they'll wait.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** Let's say China invades Taiwan. What would be our response? Would we enter a war?<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** We would respond, and we would have a war. And I think we would win. But I think the war would have all sorts of unintended consequences. You cannot predict the outcome of war. It takes years, it takes a lot of lives, it takes trillions of dollars... and it's unpredictable.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** What makes you think we would win?<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** I think we have an advantage in terms of our allies, our defense system, and our technology. I think that we would win, but at a very high cost.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** Because I'm not sure. I think a lot of people would think that. But I think the Chinese government is saying "we're not going to lose. We're going to win this conflict." And I think they might be right.<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** I think they could win, absolutely. We could both lose, depending on what happens.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** It's a very bleak outcome because of nuclear weapons. We're in this weird situation - if the USA wins we're fucked, if China wins we're fucked, if we both lose we're really fucked.<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** That's right. It's not a good outcome either way.<br><br>**Lex Fridman:** I think it's just insane that we're even talking about this. Historically, I think almost every time this has happened there has been war. I hope we don't follow history.<br><br>**Eric Schmidt:** I hope we don't follow history.